Four signals on the conditions that move careers and households. Updated when conditions change.
Geopolitical
⚠ De-escalating · unsigned
US–Iran war (since Feb 28): Iran says its operations against Israel are over — Hormuz traffic moving, but no deal is signed
Iran announced an end to its military operations against Israel on June 7, and the US Energy Secretary reports ship traffic through the strait is increasing. The broader memorandum — reopening terms, nuclear talks, sanctions relief — remains unsigned and contested on both sides. Brent has eased to the low $90s.
→MOU still unsigned — terms contested on both sides (as of June 9)
▼Hormuz ship traffic increasing, per the US Energy Secretary (June 9)
→Brent ~$92/bbl — down from $100+, still elevated (June 10)
Inflation jumped to 3.8% — war-driven energy shock, Fed cuts now off the table
The Fed is holding. Tariff-driven price increases are still working their way through retail. Credit card delinquencies at a 12-year high signal household stress.
▲Credit card delinquency: 3.2% — 12-year high
▲Consumer goods prices: 10–20% higher than 18 months ago
→GDP growth positive but slowing — 1.8% annualized
White-collar job market softening while trades and healthcare remain tight
AI displacement is now measurable in hiring data. The split between sectors with AI exposure and sectors without is the defining labor story of 2026.
▲Tech unemployment: 5.3% — 18-month high
▼Skilled trades vacancy rate: 8%+ — employers can't fill roles
→Overall unemployment: 4.3% — creeping above the cycle low
Federal cuts hitting food banks, VA mental health, and energy assistance simultaneously
Multiple support systems under pressure at the same time. If you or someone you know needs help, Cher Ami has current, verified resources.
▲Food banks: $1B in federal aid cut — pantries running short
▲VA mental health: therapist shortages, waits up to 121 days
▼988 Crisis Lifeline — call or text — fully operational