Four signals across the five areas Canary tracks. Updated when conditions change.
Strait of Hormuz disruption — energy markets, shipping, and Southeast Asia hardest hit
Partial closure of a critical global chokepoint. 20% of world oil and LNG transits this route. Effects are cascading into energy costs, supply chains, and regional stability scores.
▲Global LNG prices up 28% since disruption began
▲Thailand, Vietnam: energy cost spikes — subsidy pressure
→US domestic production partially offsetting global pressure
Inflation sticky at 3.2%, rates held — tariff pass-through not fully priced in yet
The Fed is holding. Tariff-driven price increases are still working their way through retail. Credit card delinquencies at a 12-year high signal household stress.
▲Credit card delinquency: 3.2% — 12-year high
▲Consumer goods prices: 10–20% higher than 18 months ago
→GDP growth positive but slowing — 1.8% annualized
White-collar job market softening while trades and healthcare remain tight
AI displacement is now measurable in hiring data. The split between sectors with AI exposure and sectors without is the defining labor story of 2026.
▲Tech unemployment: 5.3% — 18-month high
▼Skilled trades vacancy rate: 8%+ — employers can't fill roles
→Overall unemployment: 4.1% — above the cycle low
Federal cuts hitting food banks, VA mental health, and energy assistance simultaneously
Multiple support systems under pressure at the same time. If you or someone you know needs help, Cher Ami has current, verified resources.
▲Food banks: $1B in federal aid cut — pantries running short
▲VA mental health: therapist shortages, waits up to 121 days
▼988 Crisis Lifeline — call or text — fully operational