Portugal — energy
⚠ Watch
Alentejo grid infrastructure under strain — aging substations flagged for upgrades
Portugal's interior regions depend on older distribution infrastructure. REN (national grid operator) has flagged Alentejo substations for priority investment. Not a crisis — a known gap.
→Alentejo upgrade program funded but 2–3 years from completion
▼Portugal overall grid reliability remains strong at 99.2% uptime
▼Solar capacity expanding — reducing dependence on imported gas
Europe — conflict exposure
🔴 Elevated
Iranian ballistic missile range now covers most European capitals — conflict scores adjusted
Italy, Greece, Spain, and Hungary scores reflect updated threat geometry. Not imminent — but the risk envelope has expanded. Western Iberia (Portugal) remains outside primary range.
▲Italy, Greece, Spain, Hungary: conflict scores reduced 8–12 points
▼Portugal: outside primary Iranian missile range — score unchanged
→NATO Article 5 remains the deterrent anchor for all EU members
Southeast Asia — energy
🔴 Disrupted
Strait of Hormuz partial closure — Thailand and Vietnam facing energy cost spikes
Both countries import significant LNG through Hormuz-dependent routes. Energy prices up 25–35% since disruption began. Government subsidies partially absorbing the shock.
▲Thailand energy costs: up 28% — subsidy program under pressure
▲Vietnam: electricity price increase of 18% announced March 2026
→Malaysia less exposed — domestic gas production provides buffer
Georgia — geopolitical
⚠ Watch closely
Russia proximity risk elevated — Iran-Russia intelligence sharing adds new dimension
Georgian government's tilt away from EU accession combined with Russian border proximity and expanded Iran-Russia cooperation warrants ongoing attention.
▲EU accession talks suspended — democratic backsliding concerns
▲Iran-Russia intelligence sharing: new dimension for South Caucasus
→Tbilisi remains stable day-to-day — watch political trajectory